Long-term care first principles modeling: Advantages and enhancements in modeling

This article by Milliman actuaries is the fourth in a series on long-term care (LTC) first principles modeling. The first article in the series, released in March 2016, introduced the topic and set the stage for the series of case study discussions that would follow. The second and third articles in the series, released in June 2016 and November 2016, examined the development of mortality and lapse assumptions, respectively, for use in an LTC first principles model. The latest article builds on these discussions with a look into how a first principles model, using these assumptions, can enhance and simplify the modeling of LTC projections. Once the groundwork of developing the key assumptions is completed, first principles models provide an improved platform for modeling by automating many processes and making refinements both easier to implement and more varied.

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