How will COVID-19 affect medical loss ratios?

The medical loss ratio (MLR) measures a health plan’s spending on medical claims and allowable quality investments as a portion of total premium revenue net of taxes and allowable deductions. As a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, many healthcare services have been deferred and/or eliminated in 2020, leading to a reduction in 2020 claims relative to prior years. The claims reduction for the second quarter of 2020 was more pronounced due to lockdowns in most states.

Health plans have critical decisions to make in the upcoming months with limited data available and wide uncertainty on how the pandemic will transition toward the end of 2020 and into 2021.

In this paper, Milliman’s Andrew Bochner, Jennifer Carioto, and Luis Maldonado explore how COVID-19 can affect a health plan’s MLR requirements. They also provide specific considerations for the commercial, Medicare Advantage, and Medicaid markets in 2020 and beyond.