Potential impact of COVID-19 on continuing care retirement community mortality and morbidity

The health and long-term care industries, including continuing care retirement communities (CCRCs) were among those most directly and adversely affected by the COVID-19 pandemic.

From the early stages of the pandemic, it was apparent that COVID-19 exerted a disproportionate impact on elderly individuals, residents of nursing homes, and those with certain preexisting health conditions. These demographics overlap significantly with the CCRC population, making the COVID-19 pandemic an especially challenging and uncertain time for CCRCs.

In this article, Milliman’s Andrew Dalton and Gregory Zebolsky discuss the impact that COVID-19 could have on actuarial assumptions relevant to CCRCs. They also develop and present representative population flow projections for a hypothetical community with three levels of care, focusing on how the pandemic may change experience over the next several years relative to pre-pandemic expectations.