COVID-19 and the future cost of coverage in the commercial health insurance market

Although pricing actuaries are trained to project future costs in environments of heightened risk, COVID-19 has introduced unprecedented disruption and uncertainty. The pandemic has affected all aspects of the healthcare industry and the American economy, altering the landscape in ways that may both increase and decrease expected costs. This volatile and uncertain environment also presents an extraordinary challenge for health plans developing rates for 2021 commercial coverage.

This paper by Milliman’s Jeff Milton-Hall, Tom Murawski, and Doug Norris is intended to help commercial health plans navigate this evolving environment. The authors discuss key considerations for how the pandemic and its aftermath could affect the cost of health insurance coverage in 2021.