Milliman’s popular Milliman Advanced Risk Adjusters™ (MARA™) software topped the competition in the latest study by the Society of Actuaries (SOA), “Accuracy of Claims-Based Risk Scoring Models.” Milliman achieved the highest overall performance among concurrent models, beating out 11 other vendors. MARA’s prospective models scored similarly well, ranking at or near the top in all four primary metrics measured.
MARA’s performance is proof of what we’ve known all along—the Milliman Advanced Risk Adjusters software is a leader in claims-based risk scoring models, and one of the most accurate tools on the market.
Since the passage of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (ACA), risk scoring models play a central role in predicting or explaining healthcare expenditures. As in each of the previous SOA studies, coefficient of determination, or R2, was used as one measure of predictive accuracy and indicates how well data fit a statistical model. With an R2 of 55.4%, MARA’s concurrent diagnosis and pharmacy model (CxAdjuster) leads the competition with the highest observed R2 for uncensored costs. For costs censored at $250,000, the same model achieved the highest R2 to occur in the study, at 66.7%.
We were especially pleased that in an exploration of ensemble methods of modeling, more weight was put on the MARA model than any other. To me that indicates that giving MARA the most credence resulted in the best performing composite prediction.
MARA models are valued by clients because they produce separate risk scores for major categories of service, including inpatient, outpatient, emergency room, physician, pharmacy, and other medical care. Beyond risk scores, all MARA models provide a probability of inpatient admission and emergency room visits, plus the contribution of clinical risk drivers for more than 1,000 medical conditions.
The study, released Monday October 25, is published by the Society of Actuaries.