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Can studying past unemployment rates predict future medical professional liability claim frequency?

November 16th, 2010

By jeremy.engdahl-johnson

Medical professional liability (MPL) claim frequency has been on the decline since 2001. With the economic slowdown impacting a number of different industries, MPL carriers are asking: Is there a direct relationship between the state of the economy and future trends in MPL? How could high unemployment affect the already low MPL claim frequency?

In this Best’s Review article, Chad Karls and Susan Forray use a statistical analysis based on the U.S. unemployment rate to forecast future trends in MPL claim frequency.

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  1. November 17th, 2010 at 13:28 | #1

    Thanks…Good Question to post

    This is the second time in a week I have seen or heard this question. One of my clients associated with MPL was also trying to find some answers in this area.

    While Safety initiatives and so called tort reform might have some impact on declines in MPL claim frequency, high unemployment rates probably have a greater impact – but it probably is more of an indirect versus a direct impact. High unemployment also translates into more people going without medical insurance over the last five years – which means more people are only seeking “minimum” healthcare services.

    As the economy improves and more people start seeking healthcare again – will MPL claims rise? Time will tell. Thanks again…

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